Oil prices maintained their positive momentum, rising for a second
straight day after OPEC countries called on several of the
organization's members to adhere to the deal to reduce output. Adding to
momentum for the commodity and further boosting prices was the
commitment by Saudi Arabia - the world's number one oil exporter - to
cut exports starting next month. The oil-linked loonie gained on the
back of these developments, rising to a fresh multi-month high relative
to the dollar. Unlike the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, another
currency closely-related to oil, didn't manage to advance relative to
the US currency.
OPEC, as well as non-OPEC producers led by Russia, discussed
extending their deal to cut oil supply by 1.8 million barrels per day
(bpd) during yesterday's meeting in the Russian city of St. Petersburg.
The initial deal which was agreed last year and went into effect in
January of this year, was originally expected to last up to the first
half of 2017. As the boost it provided to oil prices was temporary, it
was extended until March, 2018.
The initial deal's effectiveness to raise prices was in part dented
by rising output from US shale producers who attempted to benefit from
the increase in prices, placing a ceiling on the stronger upward
movement in oil prices that was hoped for by the deal participants. The
latest discussions are opening the way for a continuation of the deal
beyond March of next year, in an effort to deplete global crude
inventories.
Another significant development from yesterday's meeting, is that
Nigeria, a major oil producer which was excluded from the initial deal
to cut output, has voluntarily agreed to eventually (depending on
Nigerian production patterns) join efforts to reduce production. A
recent increase in production by Nigeria and Libya, another nation
exempted from the initial deal, led to oil prices tumbling recently.
Specifically, in late June, WTI and Brent crude both fell to more than
eight-month lows of $42.05 and $44.35 a barrel respectively.
Moreover, Khalid al-Falih, the Saudi Energy Minister, stated that his
country would reduce its exports to 6.6m bpd in August, by roughly one
million barrels per day compared to a year ago. He added that global
stockpiles have fallen by 90m barrels during the first six months of the
year, though they currently exceed the five-year average for
industrialized nations by about 250m barrels. Falih expects global oil
demand to grow next year at a magnitude that outpaces the increase in US
output. China is anticipated to record a double-digit increase in oil
imports in the coming year.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have so far cut production by more than
agreed, but compliance by Iraq and the United Arab Emirates has not been
as strong. This is a consideration that must be addressed according to
Saudi Arabia's Falih, who avoided naming specific countries and added
that the committee monitoring compliance raised the issue with lagging
nations. Alexander Novak, the Russian Energy Minister, said that full
compliance would result to an additional 0.2m barrels being removed from
the market on a daily basis.
Concluding with market movements, oil prices are posting considerable
gains for a second day in a row. WTI and Brent crude oil were trading
at $47.26 and $49.51 a barrel in late European trading hours, up 2.0%
and 1.9% on the day respectively. In forex markets, dollar/loonie fell
to a fresh 15-month low of 1.2480 in today's trading as the oil-linked
Canadian dollar is benefitting from higher oil prices (Canada is a major
exporter of the commodity). The Russian ruble is not experiencing
similar gains as dollar/ruble is looking set for its third consecutive
day of advances. The pair last traded at 59.890.
(Source ActionForex.com)
