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Monday, September 19, 2022

More Downward Days" That Could Ultimately End up being a "Huge Flush"

A "Couple of Additional Downward Days" That Could Ultimately End up being a "Huge Flush" - Investors to Fed Rate Increment Anticipated For this present Week

Investors are getting ready for the business sectors to endure more shots this week after the Fed meets and increments rates again with an end goal to reduce expansion.

The Biden economy is a wreck and deteriorating. The Fed is supposed to meet this week and increment financing costs by up to 1%. This would end the economy however many accept preventing expansion from going crazy is important

Investors talked with at the Market Watch shared:

Investors became acclimated to "the tailwind for more than 10 years with falling loan costs" while searching for the Fed to step in with its "put" should the going get rough.

“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect."

In the mean time, the Fed's forceful position implies investors ought to be ready for what might be a "couple of additional everyday cuts descending" that could ultimately end up being a "last large flush," said Liz head of venture procedure at SoFi, in a Thursday note.

“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”

Individuals are attempting to live with 10% expansion however it is getting extreme.

Very few Americans have a lot of confidence that Jerome Powell can effectively stop this expansion rocket transport.

Americans are feeling the Biden expansion torment. Costs are mind blowing and Americans know it.

Biden couldn't make a more regrettable showing in the event that he attempted. The US economy and all the other things is enduring an onslaught and being obliterated by the bad hooligans in the Biden Organization.




Thursday, January 10, 2019

Fed Chairman Powell Getting Cold Feet on Aggressive Policies

The Federal Reserve released minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and it looks like the “Powell Put” might be in.




The minutes revealed a much more dovish sounding Fed as we move into 2019. Members of the FOMC indicated they could be “patient” with future rate hikes and said the future path of the central bank’s monetary policy is “less clear.”
What is clear is that Powell and company seem to be getting cold feet when it comes to continuing on an aggressive tightening policy. The question is why?
According to Reuters, the minutes revealed that “a number of” policymakers said that before raising interest rates again, it was important for the central to take stock of risks that had become “more pronounced in recent months.” In fact, a few FOMC members were apparently arguing for a pause in rate increases.
On the other hand, Fed members still seem optimistic about the US economy. The minutes indicated members generally think “the economy had been evolving about as they had anticipated.” They view the labor market as “strong.” FOMC members project continued economic growth and say inflation remains relatively “muted.”
Yet, the central bank appears to be waffling when it comes to normalizing rates. What gives?
A recent talk by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Atlanta reflected the sudden dovish turn. Peter called the comments “tailor-made” for the stock market — and this may well reveal why the Fed has gone wobbly on rate hikes.
It’s almost as if he brushed up his script, somebody took him behind the barn and got his mind right, and he came out as an uber-dove. All he talked about was why the Fed is going to be patient. Patient now is back – patient in raising rates. The Fed is not worried about inflation. The Fed is not worried specifically about rising wages, about the low unemployment rate. None of this stuff, which would have concerned the Fed a few months ago, all of a sudden the Fed is not worried at all about any inflationary pressures in the market, about wage growth. Everything is fine.”
Powell also walked back statements he made last month about quantitative tightening being on “autopilot,” saying the Federal Reserve would not “hesitate to make a change” to its balance-sheet reduction plan if data showed that it was harming economic growth.
Basically, that’s what the market wanted to hear and that is what caused a rally to move into a higher gear and you saw the big rise in the stock market.”
I think Peter hit the nail on the head. Powell and company are telling the markets what they want to hear. The Powell Put is in. He wants to rescue the stock market. The hope is that a little dovish talk will ease investors’ concern and stabilize the markets.
Peter was actually talking about this last summer. Even before the stock market started to tank, Peter was saying that eventually, the Fed was going to have to give. This was back in August when everybody was focused on problems in emerging markets.
And the main reason that everybody believes the US dollar is going to continue to strengthen is because they believe the Fed is going to keep raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. So, the longer the Fed is going to keep up the pretense that it’s going to raise rates and shrink its balance sheet, then it continues to put pressure on emerging markets and it continues to put pressure on the housing markets. So, ultimately, the Federal Reserve is going to have to give, and what the markets are going to have to start anticipating is the end of the cycle. Because even though the Fed is still talking about removing the monetary combination, there’s not much left that they can remove without the whole thing comes toppling down. In fact, the evidence is already there that the economy is weak, despite the refusal of the markets to acknowledge that. And clearly, Donald Trump wants to continue to pretend that the economy is strong.”
Fast forward to today. The stock market bubble has popped. There is even more pressure on the Fed to ease up on rate hikes. In fact, President Trump has been verballing hammering the Fed for months. The central bankers can talk about their political independence until they’re blue in the face. We all know that’s a myth. Powell has to feel that pressure. It would certainly account for the sudden dovish turn we see at the Fed.
Here’s the bottom line: even though Powell and company still think the economy is strong (It isn’t) and that should support continued monetary tightening, they believe propping up the stock market is a bigger priority. This paragraph from the minutes makes that pretty clear:
After taking into account incoming economic data, information from business contacts, and the tightening of financial conditions, participants generally revised down their individual assessments of the appropriate path for monetary policy and indicated either no material change or only a modest downward revision in their assessment of the economic outlook.”
The only thing that’s actually changed in the minds of FOMC members is conditions on Wall Street. But that matters.
So, the Powell Put is in.

Now, what’s going to happen when the central bankers actually figure out that the economy is about to follow the stock market into the valley?

Source: Here


Wednesday, July 25, 2018

4 or 5% ? Excitement builds for GDP on Friday Drudge Teases Excellent POTUS Economic Report

Media mogul Matt Drudge spread optimistic speculation on Tuesday, as The Department of Commerce is set to release its latest GDP report.
While he might have a source inside the White House (he’s frequently met with POTUS), the proprietor of DrudgeReport.com could have been clued-in by a Tuesday Trump tweet, in which the president alluded to the “best financial numbers on the Planet.”
Last week, the president even suggested the economy could be “better than it’s ever been.”
“If GDP does surpass 4% on a quarterly basis it will be the first time it has done so since the third quarter of 2014, when it registered 5.2% during Obama’s second term in office,” reports Fox Business.
A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found 50 percent of registered voters agree with the president’s handling of the economy.


 Source: Here


Friday, July 20, 2018

The SP500 is up 31% since Trump’s win, it gives him the opportunity to be more aggressive in his trade wars.We’re playing with the bank's money'

 President Donald Trump said the stock market rally since his election victory gives him the opportunity to be more aggressive in his trade war with China and other countries.

“This is the time. You know the expression we’re playing with the bank’s money,” he told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in a “Squawk Box” interview aired Friday.




The president has a big cushion. The S&P 500 is up 31 percent since Trump’s win on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2016, through Thursday. The market’s gain has slowed this year as the administration has implemented new tariffs on countries, with the benchmark index up 4.9 percent for 2018 through Thursday.

Trump added the market would likely be much higher if he didn’t escalate the trade issues with China and the rest of the world.

“We are being taking advantage of and I don’t like it,” he said. “I would have a higher stock market right now. … It could be 80 percent [since the election] if I didn’t want to do this.”
The president also said he is willing to slap tariffs on every Chinese good imported to the U.S. should the need arise.

"I'm ready to go to 500," Trump added.

The reference is to the dollar amount of Chinese imports the U.S. accepted in 2017 — $505.5 billion to be exact, compared with the $129.9 billion the U.S. exported to China, according to Census Bureau data.

So far in the trade war between the two largest economic powers in the world, the U.S. has slapped tariffs on just $34 billion of Chinese products, which China met with retaliatory duties.



Source: here


Thursday, June 7, 2018

Trump's "Trade War" Is Working: US Trade Deficit Collapses

One month after the biggest plunge in the US trade deficit since the financial crisis - good news for Trump who has engaged in "trade war" with the rest of the world to boost US trader and exports - the good news continued in April, when according to the Census Bureau, the US deficit shrank again, down 2.1% from a revised $47.2BN to $46.2BN - the lowest since September 2017, and beating not only the $49BN consensus estimate, but also also the lowest Wall Street estimate of $46.2BN.

Incidentally, with today's revision, the March plunge in the US trade deficit has now risen to $10BN, the highest since 2008, and the second biggest improvement in the US deficit on record.
According to the census bureau, the deficit decreased from a revised $47.2 billion in March to $46.2 billion in April, amid a perfect trade environment as exports rose and imports declined for the second month in a row, or as Trump would say, "his policies to boost US trade worked."

Broken down by category, the goods deficit decreased $1.0 billion in April to $68.3 billion. The services surplus decreased less than $0.1 billion in April to $22.1 billion.
The good news: exports of goods and services increased $0.6 billion, or 0.3%, in April to $211.2 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.3 billion and exports of services increased $0.3 billion.
  • The increase in exports of goods mostly reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.3 billion) and in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.7 billion). A decrease in capital goods ($1.4 billion) partly offset the increases.
  • The increase in exports of services mostly reflected increases in other business services ($0.1 billion), which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, in financial services ($0.1 billion), and in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.1 billion).
Also good news, if only for GDP bean-counters: imports declined, decreasing by $0.4 billion, or 0.2%, in April to $257.4 billion. Imports of goods decreased $0.7 billion and imports of services decreased $0.3 billion.
  • The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in consumer goods ($2.8 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion). Increases in other goods ($1.3 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($1.2 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The increase in imports of services mostly reflected increases in transport ($0.1 billion), in other business services ($0.1 billion), and in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.1 billion)
Broken down by trading partner, the March figures showed surpluses with South and Central America ($4.1), Hong Kong ($2.2), United Kingdom ($0.9), Singapore ($0.7), and Brazil ($0.6
Meanwhile, the countries that should be worried that they may fall in Trump's trade war sights, and recorded deficit with the US in March, included China, of course, with a $30.8 billion deficit, down sharply from $34.2 billion a month earlier, but also the European Union ($13.2), Mexico ($6.0), Japan ($5.9), Germany ($5.6), OPEC ($3.3), Italy ($2.4), India ($2.0), Canada ($1.7), France ($1.6), South Korea ($1.3), Taiwan ($1.1), and Saudi Arabia ($0.9).
Finally, to help Trump make his economic case even stronger, the US deficit excluding petroleum products: after hitting a record in February, continued its dramatic improvement in April, suggesting that whatever Trump is doing to boost overall trade (we already know US petroleum exports are soaring), may be working, as it shrank from over $50BN in February to just $41BN in April.



And now, we expect even more upward revisions to Q2 GDP, which according to the Atlanta Fed will now likely print above 5.0%
Source here

Friday, May 25, 2018

Fed Reserve Loved Obama, Now Purposely Hurting Trump

Rep. Louie Gohmert called out the Federal Reserve Thursday, pointing out how they kept interest rates low for Obama and have been raising the rates on President Trump.

Appearing on Fox Business, Gohmert said, “The Fed loved the Obama administration, loved Obama, they kept the rates just so low and lower than that was appropriate for one reason, to keep Obama from looking like the worst president in history.”
“Trump comes in, the economy turns around because of the things that he’s doing and so what does the Fed do as Obama’s best friend and not being a friend of Trump? They immediately start raising rates as things start going well,” he continued.
The Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen announced a Fed Fund rate increase in December 2017, which was the fourth increase since Trump’s election.
In contrast, the Fed only raised interest rates on Obama one time in eight years.
While Trump continues delivering on campaign promises, the globalists are attempting to economically sabotage his administration at the expense of the American people.

HISTORIC: President Trump Will Audit The Fed 


Source InfoWars




Tuesday, July 25, 2017

OPEC Remains Committed to Cutting Output; Oil Rises; Loonie Receives a Boost

Oil prices maintained their positive momentum, rising for a second straight day after OPEC countries called on several of the organization's members to adhere to the deal to reduce output. Adding to momentum for the commodity and further boosting prices was the commitment by Saudi Arabia - the world's number one oil exporter - to cut exports starting next month. The oil-linked loonie gained on the back of these developments, rising to a fresh multi-month high relative to the dollar. Unlike the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, another currency closely-related to oil, didn't manage to advance relative to the US currency.
OPEC, as well as non-OPEC producers led by Russia, discussed extending their deal to cut oil supply by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during yesterday's meeting in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. The initial deal which was agreed last year and went into effect in January of this year, was originally expected to last up to the first half of 2017. As the boost it provided to oil prices was temporary, it was extended until March, 2018.
The initial deal's effectiveness to raise prices was in part dented by rising output from US shale producers who attempted to benefit from the increase in prices, placing a ceiling on the stronger upward movement in oil prices that was hoped for by the deal participants. The latest discussions are opening the way for a continuation of the deal beyond March of next year, in an effort to deplete global crude inventories.
Another significant development from yesterday's meeting, is that Nigeria, a major oil producer which was excluded from the initial deal to cut output, has voluntarily agreed to eventually (depending on Nigerian production patterns) join efforts to reduce production. A recent increase in production by Nigeria and Libya, another nation exempted from the initial deal, led to oil prices tumbling recently. Specifically, in late June, WTI and Brent crude both fell to more than eight-month lows of $42.05 and $44.35 a barrel respectively.
Moreover, Khalid al-Falih, the Saudi Energy Minister, stated that his country would reduce its exports to 6.6m bpd in August, by roughly one million barrels per day compared to a year ago. He added that global stockpiles have fallen by 90m barrels during the first six months of the year, though they currently exceed the five-year average for industrialized nations by about 250m barrels. Falih expects global oil demand to grow next year at a magnitude that outpaces the increase in US output. China is anticipated to record a double-digit increase in oil imports in the coming year.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have so far cut production by more than agreed, but compliance by Iraq and the United Arab Emirates has not been as strong. This is a consideration that must be addressed according to Saudi Arabia's Falih, who avoided naming specific countries and added that the committee monitoring compliance raised the issue with lagging nations. Alexander Novak, the Russian Energy Minister, said that full compliance would result to an additional 0.2m barrels being removed from the market on a daily basis.
Concluding with market movements, oil prices are posting considerable gains for a second day in a row. WTI and Brent crude oil were trading at $47.26 and $49.51 a barrel in late European trading hours, up 2.0% and 1.9% on the day respectively. In forex markets, dollar/loonie fell to a fresh 15-month low of 1.2480 in today's trading as the oil-linked Canadian dollar is benefitting from higher oil prices (Canada is a major exporter of the commodity). The Russian ruble is not experiencing similar gains as dollar/ruble is looking set for its third consecutive day of advances. The pair last traded at 59.890.




(Source ActionForex.com)

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